Ratings & Rankings, Week 11
With the eyes of the world upon this nation today, and such important decisions to be made, it’s important not to lose sight of what’s important, and remember to roll with the punches on whatever the results bring at 7 PM EST; I’m of course talking about the first College Football Playoff Ranking Poll by the committee that releases tonight and will give us some initial insight into the lens that the committee is looking at the new 12-team format through. Lucky for them, the leaders in the clubhouse for each of the four Power Conferences seem pretty obvious (Georgia, Oregon, BYU, Miami), as well as the non-Power Four at-large recipient (Boise State). Surely things won’t change in the next four weeks to make it more complicated!
College Football Playoff Rankings, Week 11
First Four Out: Tennessee, Ole Miss, Colorado, Texas A&M
Just looking at these matchups gets me so excited for this new format. Is there a bad first-round game on this board?
What makes this new format unique is the inherent advantage that teams like Texas, the 5-seed, would have in this format. While Georgia would be the SEC champion in this scenario, they would have had to travel to Atlanta to play what would likely be a tough second-place SEC team as what essentially serves as their first-round game in the playoff in the SEC Championship. Texas, meanwhile, gets a home-field game against the 12-seed for being just outside of the auto-qualifying top-four seeds.
I’m so excited to see what the new paths to winning a national championship will look like in this new era. What if a 2-loss team gets hot at the end of November, and makes a run against a string of previously undefeated, higher-ranked teams? Will at-large teams like Boise State be able to edge out 2-loss power conference teams for higher seeding to improve the chances of our first non-power conference national champion in the modern era? Noted opponents of playoff expansion (such as Ari Wasserman of On3) have already begun to change their tune on the implications of a 12-team field, months before our first is even set.
Model Rankings, Week 11
The top four remain in place; Ohio State finally feels a bit more correct at the 1 spot, and the other three remain idle or steady enough in their results to warrant stability at the top.
Miami gets a bit of love after adding a 20+ point win against Duke, who is barely out of the top 50 in the model rankings. The ‘Canes are one of four remaining undefeated Power Four conference teams and have rolled by multiple touchdowns in their last few results.
I was a bit surprised to see Iowa State remain in place after their loss to Texas Tech over the weekend, but their path to the Big 12 championship and in turn a playoff bid + first-round bye remains relatively clear.
I disagree with my model on Clemson this week; their defensive advanced metrics are keeping them afloat and I don’t doubt that on the right day, they would be favored against most teams in the country, but I didn’t love Clemson’s offensive clunkiness + ability to execute against inferior competition on Saturday. But remember - these are ratings, not rankings - it’s a measure of who would be favored against who, not who deserves to be ranked X, or Y.
Heisman Rankings, Week 11:
Cutting down to four here, as there’s a pretty huge gap between these guys and the field. We’ll note any late entrants.
Dylan Gabriel, QB, Oregon
The best player on (one of the) best team(s) continues to roll - Gabriel is playing better as the season goes on, this week shredding Michigan’s vaunted secondary for 294 yards and a touchdown. This is the Senior play-caller’s third game in the last four with a QBR over 95.
Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Coloarado
Colorado had another bye week this week, but Hunter is back in action this Saturday against a sneaky-good Texas Tech team. Hunter has some work to do to gain some ground on the frontrunners but remains in the mix purely based on how unique what he is doing this season is. Colorado is hanging around in the Big 12 conversation, which will only help Hunter’s chances.
Cam Ward, QB, Miami
Ward continues to put up video game numbers; against Duke, he was 25-41 for 400 yards and 5 touchdowns (with an interception). It was his second-best QBR output of the season behind the season opener against Florida.
Ward is the favorite in most betting markets at this point. If his team is undefeated in the regular season and/or wins the ACC, if we’re being honest, I would expect him to be a shoo-in for this award based on the fact that he’s put the numbers that he has and is a QB on an undefeated Power Four team. But guess what? I’m not most Heisman voters. And in these rankings, Cam Ward still has ground to make up.
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Jeanty had 149 yards on 31 carries in Boise State’s big win against San Diego State on Friday evening; at this point, teams have realized that you need 4+ defenders to bring this guy down, and are stacking 9+-man boxes against the Broncos and selling out to prevent breakaway runs. This hasn’t meant that No. 2 has been less valuable - the threat of him alone has opened up the passing game massively for the Broncos. I still think his body of work this season is deserving of the number one spot in these Heisman rankings.
via statsowar on X