We were due for a chalk week, and got it in Week 9: AP-ranked teams went 9-0 this week against unranked opponents, and we only had one ranked-on-ranked matchup with LSU / Texas A&M. But you’re crazy if you think just cause the favorites won, we didn’t learn anything about the 12-team playoff race this weekend, and you’re even crazier if you think these relatively ‘bland’ results don’t set up some monumental matchups over the next weeks.
Opening Thoughts
LSU at Texas A&M
The Aggies gut out a win after playing one of the more temperamental games in recent memory. LSU looked like the better team in the first half, but let A&M hang around after missed field goals and mistakes on offense that stalled out drives and capped LSU’s momentum. The real shift came in the third quarter when Junior QB Garrett Nussmeier threw his first of three interceptions and gave the Aggies the ball on the Tiger 8-yard line. From there, making the change from Conner Weigman to Marcel Reed at QB helped the Aggie offense sustain that momentum that the defense created, and it was off to the races from there.
I’ve certainly got some bias looking at this game, but I’ve seen the narrative that A&M lucked into LSU mishaps in the second half and couldn’t think that’s further from the truth. The Aggies finished this game with a 90% postgame win probability; meaning if you took every play from this game and shuffled them into a random order, A&M is still winning this game 9 times out of 10.
The Aggies have gotten to the QB all year, and it was no different last night. They have run the ball as well as anyone in the SEC all year, and it was no different last night. They’ve won the turnover battle all year, and it was no different last night. Maybe Nussmeier throwing three second-half picks is an anomaly, but is throwing 9 INTs in 8 games one?
The other big headline out of this game is the QB situation for A&M - Conner Weigman looked more like the signal-caller that we saw during the Notre Dame and Mississippi State games than what we saw when the Aggies dominated Missouri about a month ago. Marcel Reed has been average-slightly above average in the time that he’s been in for Weigman this year, but has certainly shown the spark that he can bring in the run/zone-read game for A&M. I will posit that I think it’s time for A&M to stick with one - whether it’s Weigman or Reed, any serious championship contender shouldn’t be playing musical chairs at QB heading into week 10. The Aggies have been good enough elsewhere to have that luxury this year, and in my opinion, have benefitted from catching opposing coaches off guard when it comes to how teams are game-planning for this Aggie offense. Reed may be the obvious answer; he gives you another dimension with his legs and OC Collin Klein seems to be more comfortable calling plays for an offense that has options to run the ball at QB. But remember - Reed is a freshman, and has only started three games in his career - he still has a ways to go as a passer, and can’t make some of the downfield throws that Weigman has shown that he’s at least capable of making. It will be interesting to see how A&M sorts things out between now and the Texas game on Thanksgiving weekend - they go at South Carolina, New Mexico State at home, and at Auburn in that time.
For LSU, you’ve still got some big football games to play and with just one conference loss are not out of the playoff conversation by any stretch of the imagination (although lose to ‘Bama in two weeks and you are). Brian Kelly has got to emphasize two things during the bye week, though: LSU has to be able to run the ball more effectively and must scheme up a coherent defensive game plan to stop a dual-threat QB. If you thought Marcel Reed was dangerous, wait until you step on the same field as Jalen Milroe in a few weeks. Despite these issues and the loss, Tiger fans can hang their hat on what is becoming an elite D-Line that’s improving each week, and the young talent that you have at the skill positions. If Nuss can cut down on mistakes and LSU can open up the running game a bit, they are still one of the most dangerous teams in the SEC this year and will have a chance to prove it by the time it’s all said and done.
For the Aggies - enjoy it. For now, at least, you’re at the table. You’re in the conversation. You’ve got a tough stretch to end the year and questions at the QB position to address, but you’re 7-1 with the loss being a good one and are undefeated in the SEC with a straight line to Atlanta to play for an SEC title. The Aggies have all the trappings of a competitor: they run the ball well, they are nasty on both the offensive and defensive line (with the D-line being legitimately a potential top-5 unit in FBS football) and are incredibly disciplined and well-coached. A&M has always had the players, but you’re starting to see what it’s like when they have the organization to go along with it. I’ll leave you all with a quote from the new head man in College Station, Mike Elko’s postgame presser relating to this very topic:
"This is a real program. It is not fake. It is not a politician running this program, talking fast and BSing everybody."
Penn State gets it done and looks to a huge matchup next week
The Nittany Lions grind out a win on the road at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday night to set up the top-five matchup next weekend against Ohio State. The big headline here is around Penn State’s QB situation - senior QB and three-year incumbent Drew Allar left the game at the half with an apparent lower-body injury and sophomore Beau Pribula came in and provided a bit of a spark to the offense; Pribula led Penn State on two 75+ TD drives in the third and fourth quarters and had a QBR of 85.0 (compared to Allar’s 53.7 QBR for the first half of play).
A lot of what the Nittany Lions do is on the ground as well, so to be fair to both QBs, the tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen is lethal to opposing defenses as well and kept the Badgers on their toes. But Pribula adds a mobile element to the dropback game that Allar doesn’t have, and the question with Pribula was always if he could be an effective passer - which is precisely what we saw last night. The issue with Penn State has never been the defense - we all agree that the front seven is good enough to at least stifle some of how teams like Ohio State are trying to attack you. It’s always been the offense and if James Franklin’s teams could score enough to keep up. We’ve seen flashes from this Penn State team this year, but I’m curious if they can put it all together in a game against elite, NFL-level talent like Ohio State has. Will Allar be healthy? Even if he is, do we see some of Pribula in the game next weekend if Penn State struggles to move the ball?
Ohio State hangs on, has questions
Speaking of the Buckeyes, they round out our opening thoughts this week following the near-scare at home against a shaky Nebraska team. The Buckeyes have been largely unimpressive as the season has gone on and their schedule has gotten tougher, which contradicts their “$20 million roster” that many pegged as the best in college football coming into this year.
The issues with the Buckeyes start with the O-Line - they lost starting Left Tackle Josh Simmons to a season-ending injury against Oregon, and backup Zen Michalski went down against the Huskers and wasn’t able to return. Nebraska, just like Oregon two weeks ago, was able to exploit this relative weakness in the Buckeye roster and plug up the Buckeyes’ star running back tandem of Quinshon Judkins and Trayveon Henderson for 64 yards on the day. Because of this, Ohio State felt one-dimensional in their air attack and wasn’t able to dictate the game in the way that they should have - Ohio State was a 25-point favorite coming off of a bye week and eeked a win out by less than a touchdown.
There are some positives - the secondary contained Nebraska freshman QB Dylan Raiola and forced a turnover that ultimately won them the game. Ohio State QB Will Howard settled down late and made the plays that got it done for Ohio State - but the questions that should have been answered at this point in the season loom large going into what could be an elimination game for the Buckeyes, with the way the Big 10 is faring at this point in the season.
Week 9 Roundup:
Week 9 FBS Results Sorted by Excitement Index
BYU keeps doing it
The Cougars win as road underdogs in a game where the score was not indicative of how the game went; BYU plays sound defense and QB Jake Retzlaff (aka Partick Shalom) has the offense rolling through the Big 12 with a manageable schedule left on the table.
Indiana strolls to 8-0
The Hoosiers just keep winning, and they do it without their star QB this week. It was the pick six that sparked it, but credit to backup Tayven Jackson who proved to be enough to get Indiana to 8-0 and in control of their own destiny in the Big 10 title race.
Notre Dame dominates
The Irish dominated previously undefeated Navy; Riley Leonard continues to get better each week and had his best game in the air, passing for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns en route to a 51-14 shellacking. Notre Dame forced 6 turnovers (!!!) and continues to create separation in their resume from the ugly Northern Illinois loss. The Texas A&M win continues to look better each week, helping the Irish’s resume further.
via SI
Boise State grinds one out
The Broncos got it done against a tough UNLV team on the road and cemented themselves as the leader in the clubhouse for the at-large playoff bid promised to non-power four conferences. Ashton Jeanty was held to his season-low rushing total of 128 yards (LOL), but if you watched this game you know how vital the short-yardage situations that he provided for Boise State were.
But just as I said last week (not to brag) it was QB Maddux Madsen who took the Broncos over the top - Jeanty is the best player in college football this year and one of the best backs that we’ve seen in recent memory - but this Broncos offense is not one-dimensional. They can win in different ways and I can’t wait for them to pair up against a Power-Conference team in the playoffs.
Auburn gets their first SEC win
Auburn fans let out a huge sigh of relief in finally getting their first SEC win, coming on the road against a waning Kentucky team. The Wildcats got out to a 10-0 start in the first two possessions, and then promptly failed to reach Auburn territory again until the fourth quarter.
Auburn QB Payton Thorne threw a pick on the second possession and it felt like more of the same, but the Auburn offense got it going toward the end of the second quarter and moved the ball well in the second half. Not to take away from Auburn, but I do see this more of a Kentucky-starting-to-unwind situation than Auburn making huge steps week over week, but also consider that this is exactly the game that Auburn has been giving away up to this point in the year - they’ve dropped games to both Oklahoma and Mizzou in similar situations. So let’s clap for Auburn here - it may not be a complete 180, but it’s movement in the right direction for one of the few teams that just hasn’t found itself or its identity through 10 weeks.
via Lexington Herald Leader
Oregon dominates
Oregon quietly cruised and covered a three-touchdown spread against a tricky Illinois team that’s beaten Michigan and played Penn State to a relatively close game. Dylan Gabriel is getting better every week and seems to be clicking with his incredibly talented receiver room, and the Oregon defense is quietly putting together one of the best seasons in the Big 10. The Ducks are, and are playing like the #1 team in the country.
Texas survives
Alright yes, there’s some bias coming here as well. I try to warn you when it is comin’:
Texas gets it done in a close one against a good Vanderbilt team. I think at this point we know that Vandy is a scrappy team that can hang with anyone, but the real questions are around how dominant Texas really is. Coming off the big loss against Georgia in which he was benched in the second quarter, Quinn Ewers came back and had a bit of an up-and-down day: he threw for 288 yards and 3 TDs and had a 19-in-a-row completion streak at one point, but threw two picks, both of which Vandy scored off of. The Longhorns put together coherent drives all day, but had 10 penalties for over 100 yards that stifled a few promising second-half drives in their tracks. Ultimately, Vandy hung around and had a chance at an onside kick in the final seconds that would have put them in a position to send this game to OT.
Don’t get me wrong - Texas is an elite team. The defense continues to look like one of the best in the SEC, and Texas’ skill players are on a different level than most teams in college football. But is this team as much of a shoo-in to contend for a national title as we thought a few weeks ago? I’m not sure - I think getting to the QB is not as difficult as we may have thought, their rushing game is good, but not great, and the last two weeks have shown that they can be mistake-prone. Texas has a bye week before a run of Florida, Arkansas, and Kentucky leading up to the big showdown in College Station on Thanksgiving weekend.
Best Performances of Week 9
via Field Level Media
Taylen Green, QB Arkansas: 23/29, 314 yards, 5 TDs, 1 Int, 79 rush yards
Green had a huge bounce-back game after a tough game against LSU last week. Arkansas snatches some momentum back after dominating a surging Mississippi State squad.
via ABC News
Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado: 9 receptions, 153 yards, 2 TDs; 134 snaps played
Hunter saw his Heisman stock falling after leaving the last games early with injury, and was unreal this week. He caught all nine of his targets AND played 64 snaps on defense.
via The Crimson Quarry
D’Angelo Ponds, CB, Indiana: Pick Six, 3 TFLs
Ponds was a spark plug for the Hoosiers in their dominant, College Gameday-fueled win against Washington at home. Ponds had the big pick 6, and 3 of his 4 tackles were for a loss.